Tag Archives: economy

why africans migrate to europe

22 Oct

london 9.41am 11.5C sunny sunday 2017

i was reading takimag.com and come across this article that says it is 20yrs since jared diamond ‘s, guns,germs,and steel: the future of human society. trying to answer the question why some societies are more advanced than others. 

i remember being quite impressed with his book but the article also points out to me about africa’s heading towards huge population explosions because their birthrate is very high. (of course the death rate must be considered too, but it seems 

However, Sub-Saharan Africa has seen a faster decline in its under-five mortality rate, with the annual rate of reduction doubling between 1990–2000 and 2000–2011. Sub-Saharan Africa, which accounts for 38 percent of global neonatal deaths, has the highest newborn death rate (34 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2011).

so the death rate has declined rapidly, which means more babies are alive today who would have died. 

it seems the total fertility rate, the number of births per woman per lifetime in africa is over 4. a replacement rate is 2. 

now it makes sense why there is this huge migration of african people trying to get into europe. and those of you who wonder if it is true that our spread of mankind starts from africa and no where else…might well believe it when  u consider africans are so fecund. it must be their genes, they have a huge urge to reproduce. perhaps what we are seeing is just the normal progression of human migration… it is still happening, this outward spread of humanity from africa. i think in this context, we can get some understanding of the reason for africa being so poor and corrupt and unequal. 

 it certainly explains the slave trade from africa.

added. 1pm charing cross library 13.8C cloudysunny  just eaten my free margarita pizza by prezzo in northumberland avenue. they are giving away free 100 margarita pizzas every day only till tuesday. with half price pizzas till friday. 

the cheese on top is supposed to be mozzarella, but it does not have that stringy strands that u get when u lift up the wedge of pizza. i wonder if they use cheddar instead for this free pizza. i think it is silly of them if they did, because we can only judge their food from this free bie, and if they skrimp on it, we can only think if that is it, it is not worth the normal price of £8 really. perhaps it is just cold. by the time i ate it , it had lost a lot of its heat. then again, it should not go cold so quickly really. or if it does, then they should insist we eat in… otherwise we wont get  the best of that pizza.

there is not much on it, that pizza i mean. just a tomato base and cheese on top.  that is the trouble. might be better if they give a slice but fill it up. but even then more cheese wont really make it that interesting. it will still be rather dry. i wonder who  orders a margarita pizza. haha. it must be the dullest pizza . 

the restaurant prezzo is really very nice, i expected a queue outside so that i completely missed it and walked past it. there was no queue, and it did not look crowded inside when i peeked through the glass window; so that i hesitated to go in, but i did anyway, afterall , they can only say no… but the waitress said it is still on.  you can eat in, or take away, at first i thought you have to eat in, until i saw a couple walk away with take away boxes, so i changed my order. while i was eating it on the steps of st martin in the fields church, i could see another prezzo right across the space pass the edith cavel memoriam. so many branches, one wonders how they can survive. 

i passed through hydepark this morning on the bus and saw the leaves are falling in drifts. 

shale oil

8 Oct

london 10.57am sunny 13.6C thursday 2015

i seem to have gotten wifi in the library now. it is from another source, not the library wifi provider which still have an unsafe connection so that my chrome wont allow me to connect to it.

but this one seem to work very well. it has not always been so. before i was in another inner room of the library and i think that room is blocking this company’s wifi, because i have moved to a room nearer the front of the library and the signal is strong here. so that is good. haha.

i have been reading in the telegraph about how the shale oil producers in usa are now feeling the pinch of low oil prices. they may go bust. they are losing money with oil at $50 a barrel. they have endured for a year but it seems their time is up… what with talk of increased interest rates. maybe they were able to last a year since the price drop because of the low interest rates but no business can lose money for so long without going bankrupt.

but u can see how economics is a rather convoluted game. i saw a tv program last night about how rockeffeller was able to monopolise the oil industry by ‘killing’ off his rivals. well that is what saudi arabia is doing now to the shale oil producers in the usa. producing so much oil that the price is kept low. it shows how a cartel can keep prices high, or low if they control the flow of oil. they have been known to keep oil prices high in the past, and caused the world economy to go into depression and markets to crash.

in a way it is a sad thing , but on the other hand, it may bring in balance… and self regulate so that the economy naturally self corrects. i am of the opinion that booms and crashes are necessary in the market economy . it tends to overshoot , so if it booms it just booms like crazy, and then when it crashes it just overcompensate to the other end. wild flunctuations are the norm, i think.

added. the saudi govt is suffering too, as this report suggests. but it has no choice really. it has to continue to pump more oil , so that it weakens the oil price and drive the shale oil companies out of business. otherwise if it reduces its oil output it will keep the oil price high, whilst it loses its share of oil sales. and high oil prices will let the shale oil companies to continue in business.

consumption in economic terms

3 Oct

london 12.16pm 14.9C cloudy saturday 2015

lots of newspapers to read in the library today , it being saturday. 

very interesting article in today’s Financial Times. i read it in the library. as their online website has a paywall.

it tells of a 71yr old japanese man who committed suicide on a bullet train by setting himself on fire by pouring petrol on himself. i googled it, and found that the report came out on 30june 2015. a woman passenger in the same carriage died of carbon monoxide poisoning.  26 others suffered smoke inhalation. it was the first case of selfimmolation on a train. 800 people were on board. he offered 1000 yen bill to a woman who refused it and then he told her to run away before he doused himself in petrol.

added. this article says he got $1600. a lots commented that he was very selfish, because younger generation wont ever get much pension as well as endangering others. 

why did he do it? it was later discovered it is not a political protest, simply he was unable to cope with his poverty. he gets $1000 a month, but have to pay for rent etc so that he is left with $200 to live.
and it seems family ties are weakening so that many pensioners have lost touch with their family and so cannot rely on them to help out. 
medical bills are not free, even if u are poor u have to pay a certain percentage of it. and there are 7 pensioners for every 10 salaried workers.

that is what the FT article said was the reason for his suicide, and if u did not know that  the man offered 1000yen bill …you too would accept the FT report as the reason. but he isn’t totally  penniless. one can only speculate what makes people commit suicide. maybe there is more to it than meets the eye and poverty is not the only reason. also one would have thought if u are going to commit suicide why do it on a busy train, endangering so many others?

the govt is trying to increase consumption. i have been discussing this with someone on his blog and he says it is not necessary to have so much consumption but i think japan illustrates why consumption is so important.

the japanese economy is stagnant because no one wants to spend money. they are great savers, and so they hoard their money in bank accounts that do not pay much interest. that money is locked up. and without consumption, there is no growth, which means businesses are just marking time, not increasing their turnover, making the same profit every year…. and that means govt income from taxes remain static whilst expenditure rises and so it cannot balance its books. the govt is having huge debts because its outgoings exceed its income from taxes etc.

what will make those savers spend? only if they think inflation will eat into their savings or make goods or services more expensive in future, so it will be more expensive if they postpone buying them now. that makes those who want those things to decide it is better buy it now.

so the japanese government (govt) is trying to increase inflation, so that people will spend.

it is one of the perverse result of low inflation…that people avoid or postpone spending as prices are falling, and they want to wait as they know prices will fall even lower later.

if there is inflation, people will buy now rather than wait for prices to rise and so they start spending.

for the individual it is not worth it to spend, and they welcome lower prices, but to the govt that means less profits to tax and income revenue is less.

people who can afford to , should spend and buy things or services. they would help the economy.

why is it the economy is always wanting more growth?

2 Oct

london 7.15am 11.8C, sunny friday 2015

saw this blog article asking growth for the sake of what? and lamenting our throwaway culture where there is planned obsolescence. either through shoddy goods built to break down after a certain period, necessitating its replacement, or via fashion, or style where a new model is so desireable that the old is discarded. or even something new is more efficient and better than the old one.

i think growth is just a measure of how much we spend money and so circulate the money. that is the underlying great reason. whatever is needed to move money around.

in the past, people use wars, as in the roman empire building, or religion, to move money around. then we discovered capitalism. trading had been well known for ages, but it has been a limited scale, trading only in essential goods. capitalism made trading in non essentials a big thing. and not only in goods, but also in services. that brought in a game changer. leisure and luxury goods and services became big items in the trade.

so that brings us to today, where money is circulated in many ways. why, you may ask, is circulating money so important? it creates jobs, and allow many people to make money. i know it is a circular arguement, haha. money needs to be circulated because it allows more people to earn more money and that allows it to be circulated… and so on ad nauseuam. hehe. and why should money be circulated? it is because it creates new jobs. get this, the added factor in these modern times is the increasing population of people coming into work . all those young people need jobs.

unless u can discover a way of getting rid of people when they reach a certain age… in the past, wars and disease do that.

 infant mortality, and wars too , got rid of the young in the olden days; not anymore. or at least not to a big enough extant to make a difference.

slavery used to be a way of marshalling all these extra people coming in. but it is now not possible to use that to control the manpower problem. we have now the influx of refugees coming in from all those countries in conflict. the underlying reason why they leave is because there is no growth in those countries and so no jobs and no means of making money. if u ever were to ask what is so important about growth, u can just look at those countries and see why. huge amounts of people having nothing and no future because the economy is stagnant and there is no means of making money. too busy just finding things to eat never mind making money. and keeping out of the way of those fighting each other. so they leave.

say what u like about capitalism, but it is the only way now to make money circulate and expand… to create jobs for the increasing numbers being born and adding to the workforce.

the downside is the increasing use of the world’s resources. so far the world is coping well, in that oil which all doom sayers say is going to run out, with shale oil we seem to have a lot of it now and no danger of it running out.

pollution is the biggest downside. littering of plastic bags in the oceans, littering in general, dirtying the air , etc. seems that is the price we pay for having so many people living on the earth, and finding jobs for them.

what is the solution? bring back mass birth control by sterilisation? or mass euthanasia? the trees will be saved, but at what cost? all of mankind will be reduced to just existing, no fun in that at all. 

Inflation will return to 2 per cent, says Bank of England Governor – Business News – Business – The Independent

25 Jan

Inflation will return to 2 per cent, says Bank of England Governor – Business News – Business – The Independent.

i can remember a time when inflation was taught to us as a bad thing. now we have the governor of the bank of england no less wanting it to rise to 2% from what it is now .5%.

for savers, inflation is a bad thing as it erodes the value of their savings, but for spenders and for govt, inflation is good. not for itself but for what it implies, that there is a lot of economic activity, with people buying and selling , it is a self propagating cycle, with money getting less in value it discourages those who want to hoard it, and also when prices of goods keep going up people will buy now rather than wait, that keeps the money circulating, and generating profit along the way.

the converse being if inflation is low, everyone will not spend, businesses as well as ordinary people, businesses will shelf plans for expansion, people will wait to buy as they know prices will drop still more  so there is just no economic activity. without it, there is no profit for the govt to tax.

you can see how intricate it all is, and how perversive its influence and its feedback.

i can remember a time when govts are scolded for printing money, but that is exactly what the EU is doing now…  germany did it, and it led to high inflation and making the currency worthless. but now it is used to pump up the EU economy.

added. i wondered how it would work. today i read this in the sunday times to explain it.

the eurozones’ central banks buy their own govt bonds from pension funds, banks and other financial institutions. then they will invest it in businesses and lend to households to provide a boost to economic growth. i dont see the connection… do you? what is to prevent someone borrowing this money and go to uk or other parts of the world and buy up property? or even buy up british businesses, in uk or elsewhere? that is not going to help europe would it?

it seems to me that there is a race amongst the big currencies to the bottom. all trying to devalue and make theirs lower than the others. i think it is because if u have a low rate, ur goods and services are cheaper than the others . that is why the US and UK have boomed, they got in first by huge QE, printing money, so their currency is relatively cheap compared to the euro. the euro has come late to the party by devalueing now.

added 11.11am i am at the library now and read in the sunday times that diesel is now the bad boy. wtf as they say.  it seems then labour govt tried to reduce co2  emissions by introducing the  vehicle tax rate  in 2001 that penalise petrol cars. not realising that diesel churns out 4x more NO2 and 22x more particulates. oh haha. as they say. then they introduce another which abolish the vehicle tax for diesel cars entirely. so that make diesel even more attractive. in fact, i remember diesel petrol is cheaper too. now they are all making a u-turn.

One line from “Saturday Night Live” explains the turmoil in emerging markets – Quartz

5 Feb

One line from “Saturday Night Live” explains the turmoil in emerging markets – Quartz.

i remember that time when thailand started the crash in asia in the late 90s which resulted in malaysia imposing exchange controls on the ringgit and that saved the malaysian economy.

i remember indonesia crashed spectacularly, and it seems from this article they were considered by the IMF to be safe.  malaysia defied the IMF solution and imposed exchange controls.

indonesia followed the IMF advise, floated its currency which promptly went down and increased their debt as the debt was in us dollars. ..  and its economy went tits up.

and people still maintain the IMF is an expert on the economy. haha.

recently the IMF criticised the uk for reducing its debt, but have to eat its words when the economy bounced back this year, with consistent growth throughout 2013.  whilst the EU which the IMF oversees is deep  in recession. it is not changing its policy though.

i think no one really knows how the economy behaves.

the present crisis in the emerging markets is due to the fact that america is not printing money anymore and so no more  flooding the world with cheap money. that means interest rates in america will be going up and so the world is now taking money out of elsewhere and buying american debt as it is not only higher interest  but safer than in the emerging economies.  that results in crashing stock market prices in the emerging countries as the money is taken out of the countries.

it looks like the emerging economies are subprime investments.

it is true, that when america sneezes, the world catches a cold.

i just have a thought. you remember the saying… if u want to know why.. just follow the money. It occurred to me that the IMF is a money lender. it pools money given to it by countries to lend to other countries… and so i wonder how unbiased it can be in its advise. have u noticed its solution is always to say.. borrow more money… we will lend it to you. and spend your way out of your troubles. 

if the uk economy is so lousy why is employment rising?

28 Jan

interesting because it tries to account for why inspite of a falling gdp, employment is rising.

it says maybe the measuring of gdp is not accurate because there are lots of things we are getting free, via the internet, that is not measurable. for eg, spending 3hrs on facebook , playing games online, seeing films online, etc and so not going out and spending money. we get entertained free but that is not measured by gdp.

http://theleisuresociety.tumblr.com/post/41292962236/labour-hoarding-or-over-adjusted-inflation

it is also saying maybe the gdp is lagging behind and might be adjusted a few months later. it seems the office of statistics is prone to revise its estimates . the buggers!! though not its fault as the data lags behind events.

so calm down dears.

anyway,I think a flat economy is not all bad.

in my opinion, nothing the govt can do will change it as the banks are not lending. they are so deep in debt they are borrowing cheap money from govt to prop up themselves, nevermind lending to businesses.

just goes to show we are all speculating as to what the future will bring.

i suggest u ignore all this messages of doom and gloom and enjoy life. because  if u just see your life, you are really having a great time. we are enjoying free entertainment via the internet, and free time with friends, and family(those of us who have family they are talking to,haha). we have freedom of movement and association and thought. thank goodness they have not invented anything to read our thoughts and censor it. we are free to think what we like. 

 

 

more found things- beanies

26 Jan

London

25.12.13 friday
I have been finding beanies and woolly hats in the street these few days.
I think because I was in north London.
There seem to be more people dropping their beanies there than in south London, at least the waterloo area, which is that part of south London that I frequent rather a lot as it is near my gym.

As usual, it is a generalisation, and though people always say never generalise it is still something we humans do. There is some grain of truth in all generalisations. I guess north London is more populous so there are so many more people to drop things. But I found two beanies in the same street.

What was I doing in north west london area on a Friday afternoon?. I went there to have a sex session with a friend in his house.

It was on his street that I found the two beanies. ( I have discovered that is what they are called. Why are they called beanies? I have no idea. Maybe an american (it sounds american) company makes them and so the name became generic, like hoover.

And going there I found a metro newspaper , which is given away free in the morning. There I saw an advert by co op supermarket giving chicken at £1.84 a kg.

So after our sex session, I stop off at oxford st tube, and walked to the co op in brewer st. and bought the chicken. And then took the bus back without much waiting for it and which drop me right by my place.

It is not often we get chicken at this price. My 1.6kg chicken cost about £3.
Ever since they stop battery chickens and imposed more stringent conditions, we have no more £2.50 chickens which is rather a pity. But this price is still a good bargain.

I roasted it and quite delicious too, more so because I haven’t eaten chicken for some time. I have been eating pork since I was able to get it reduced price at the supermarkets. The promotion is on till end of this weekend, and I hope there is still some more chicken left on Sunday for me to buy another one. I just remembered a friend from Bournemouth , the same one who visited me a few weeks ago, is making another visit to me next week. He might enjoy the chicken.

There is a special joy in eating chicken when u had not eaten it for some time. You forget how delicious it can be and eating it now reminds me of it. Such is the easy way I get my joy. Coupled that with the free beanies I pick up on the street; I ask you how can I not be happy?

I was chatting with a guy who first contacted me via a gay website for naked meets that was set up by my friend. He wanted to chat on the phone rather than communicate via email.

Last time I called him , I got his answer machine and when he called me he got my answer machine and so back and forth. I told him that is why I don’t make calls, preferring emails, but he said he much prefer calls, as he can get to know a person very quickly by talking to them.

I said I get all these free calls on my landline but never have much chance of using it as my friends don’t really like to chat for a long time on the phone.

I can understand why too, as calls invariably come when u are sitting down to watch a favourite tv program. Or u got something to do .

And then u run out of things to talk about. He said oh no, not if u are intelligent and have an interest in the world, but I think he may be wrong there. But maybe anyone reading this can correct me.

I said it usually turn to gossip, and that can be rather a waste of time. He said he loves gossip. So there is straight away, a difference between us. Haha.

He said he does not only talk of gossip, but of world affairs and world economics too. Rather surprising to hear that, as it is a dry topic , economics.

I said don’t u find that because there is no solution to the economic crisis, talk on it tends to go round and round? He said that is the fun of it. Well, that is the difference between us then. I don’t find it much fun to talk round and round on something. Waste of time really. But maybe others disagree.

Also, I don’t think it that awful that there is no growth and we go into a triple dip. So what ? Maybe that is an ignorant talking, maybe if there is someone out there who knows about economics they can tell me why it is such a bad think that there is no growth. Why is it a good thing to have growth all the time? It only encourages govts to spend… because growth means the govt get increasing income from taxes etc.

added.26.1.13 the market dont seem to mind. it  is above 6.200 , the highest its been since 2008. it took 5yrs but the market seems to have regain all the losses since 2008. so people may have forgotten that even if there is a recession,measured as minus growth for 3 consecutive quarters,  it is a technical one. the base activity is still the same as 2008 before the recession hit. 

It is the govt’s problem if it’s tax take is reduced. It might make it live within its means. In that they have to lay off more civil servants and employ less people and have less spending. That is a good thing as far as I am concerned.

The news came out that employment rose during this time, a time of supposedly low or negative growth, so where goes the theory that low or negative growth means less employment?

My friend say there will be worst to come, and that 5yrs from now, we shall look back and consider we had a good time now. He cites as an example that we shall have less restaurants and such because the recession would have killed a lot of businesses.

I said maybe the restaurants will stop raising their prices so much and get down to more basic cooking and stop using expensive meats and jacking up the prices with unnecessary expensive garnishes and ingredients. And be forced to reduce their prices. That would be a good thing from a customer’s point of view.

But of course all this may be a lot of hot air, and I am talking rubbish. Haha. I don’t know how economics works and don’t really want to know. I don’t run the country, thank goodness. Haha.

I think that if the prices in restaurants become too much for people, because they are not earning enough, and the economy is not booming, making people less carefree about spending, it will force restaurants to keep their prices down and source cheaper cuts of meat while making it appetising.

That is a good thing , cut prices across the board.

I am sure there is a flaw somewhere to this line of reasoning.Image

But don’t write in to tell me. I don’t care.